The late Professor Anthony Chin was a vocal and well-respected National University of Singapore transport economist. One of his earliest observations about the COE system, which he made in 1994 when the system was only four years old, was its propensity to be elitist. He said then that in time, only top earners will be able to afford cars.
The Government rubbished his assertion. And in the 20 years since, it would seem Prof Chin got it wrong. Car ownership has gone up, not down.
But the situation might be quite different in the next 20 years. As Singapore’s population continues to grow, and land becomes more and more scarce, the car ownership rate will only reverse.
The Government has already slashed allowable annual growth rate of the vehicle population to 0.5 percent – down from 3 percent. There is wide speculation that it will next bring it down to zero, or even to the negative region.
What will happen to car ownership when the population climbs to 6.9 million then? Or to 10 million? That’s right – only the top earners in Singapore will be able to afford cars.
